The current situation and trend of the development of Chinese feed industry in recent years
Feed is the general term for the food of all the animals raised by all people. In the narrow sense, the general feed mainly refers to the food of the animals raised by agriculture or animal husbandry. Feed (Feed) includes soybean, soybean meal, corn, fish meal, amino acids, miscellaneous meal, additives, whey powder, oil, meat and bone meal, grain and sweet sorghum.
In 2007, China's feed industry is facing a good opportunity for development. Feed accounts for more than 70% of the production cost of animal husbandry, and the contribution rate of science and technology to animal husbandry is more than 40%. In 2007, the development situation of livestock and poultry industry is good. The situation of livestock and poultry production and marketing will be better in the whole in 2006. The price of livestock products tends to be stable and will not produce great oscillation. The feed industry in China will make great progress in the past 2007-2015 years. By 2015, the world's malnourished population will be cut by half. During that period, meat products will increase at a rate of 2% per year, especially to speed up the growth of pork and poultry. This will promote world additives, especially the increase in the demand for methionine and lysine. In 2010, the proportion of Chinese animal husbandry output value to the total agricultural output value will reach 38%.
In 1-11 months of 2012, the output of the national feed was 108 million 641 thousand tons, up 16.1% from the same period. In the 1-11 month of 2012, the output of mixed feed in the country reached 52 million 517 thousand and 300 tons, up 19.3% from the same period, and the cumulative output increased month by month. In the first half of 2012, the number of benefiting livestock was large, and the sales volume of feed increased significantly. In the three quarter, the market downturn and feed costs rose sharply, resulting in a relatively low demand for downstream products. The total output of feed in 2015 reached 2 million tons. Among them, the production of formulated feed is 1.68 million tons, the output of concentrated feed is 26 million tons, the output of premix feed is 6 million tons, and the main feed additives varieties are all domestic production.
Feed production in China is still in the production of mixed feed and single feed stage, and concentrated feed, concentrated feed and premix for feed production in a limited proportion, so the rate and effect of nutrition of livestock and poultry feed utilization is difficult to reach the international advanced level. At the same time, because the production structure of China's animal husbandry is unreasonable, cause feed unreasonable product structure, a large number of pig feed grain consumption proportion accounted for more than 50%, poultry feed accounted for 25%-30%, while cattle feed grain saving is about 20%, while the world level for pig feed 31%, 26% dairy cattle feed. 17%, our country has a certain distance with the world advanced level. Large feed enterprises have sufficient demand, high management level and high turnover rate of assets. Even if the gross sales rate of average sales is not high, the overall return on investment is better. However, due to the low gross margin and fierce competition, small scale, high cost and weak marketing capabilities will be difficult to survive and develop in the industry, and will gradually withdraw from the market, which will provide development opportunities for the dominant enterprises in the feed industry.
The pig farm affects the total amount of feed demand, while the breeding profit affects the unit feed. Because the amount of livestock and livestock breeding is not negatively related to time. The highest amount of livestock is usually the time when farming profits drop to halfway up. When the minimum amount of livestock is available, breeding profits have been on the way for a period of time. Therefore, the maximum or minimum of the number of columns is not the extreme point of the feed industry boom.
Since the 2015 Q3, the breeding industry has entered a profit period from the profit period, and the demand for brand feed has improved, but it is still lower than the market expectations. The main reason is that this round of live pig production is down to expectations. Due to the external factors such as environmental protection and cleaning up, the pig stock is still forced to withdraw from the market in the high profit period, resulting in the overall feed demand down to a historical low. However, the latest data from the Ministry of agriculture showed that the number of pigs in the country has been growing around the world, and the volume of sows has also shown signs of a steady recovery. As the volume of the store enters the recovery cycle, the demand for feed is expected to show up in the next 1-2 years.
Since the 4 quarter of 2015, although the sales volume of feed enterprises has not yet recovered significantly, the profit of farming is high, and the sharp decline of corn price reduces the raw material cost of feed enterprises, and improves the gross profit and gross profit rate of products. The average price of corn has decreased by about 515 yuan / ton since September 2015, and only 50% of the feed proportion of corn is calculated. Only the decrease of corn price will save 257.5 yuan / ton of feed cost. This part of the cost space will be eaten by breeding companies and feed enterprises. According to the cost reduction of the breeding companies, the average profit will be reduced by 1-1.5 yuan / kg, and the gross profit of the feed enterprises will be increased by 25-40 yuan per ton.
Because the raw material feed prices downward pattern established, the follow-up will have sufficient room for price cuts, it will be single ton profit in 2016 to form a positive contribution, the feed industry will usher in a volume Lizzie or high economic pattern. From the current industry situation, breeding profit into amount of profits, in the upward inflection point, the cost of raw materials in the low volatility period, feed company gross tons has started to rebound, and is expected to show a growth trend in the future 2-4 quarter, while the growth rate is expected to feed sales by quarter in the future 6-8 quarter increase.
With the increase of industry competition and the periodical fluctuation of profit, the scale of the feed industry has been expanding. The scale of large enterprises is expanding constantly. Large and medium-sized enterprises seek expansion and share of small businesses is squeezed out. Facing the increasingly fierce competition environment, the content of differentiated enterprises is expanding. 1) regional competition focuses on focusing on key markets and then expanding by radiation; 2) product positioning is refined and different.